Speculation is one of the most interesting thing, and also the most dangerous process. I am not sure whether this is losing competition in share market. If there is, undoubtedly, I will be a good candidate. I am able to lose money very efficiently by wild speculations.
Yesterday, 2 Fs does little impact on dollar, commodity. Instead, the trend continued.
Australia dollar is heading to 80 cents.
2 Fs should not be touched, its price is on verge of collapse. There is no value left for the 2 shares. Actually it is the same as bankrupt.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Commodity price
Share market is in whipsaws. Australian market has been consolidating at the range of 4900-5200 for around 2 months. Today, financial shares moved higher sharply. The only sector is lagging behind is material.
US dollar has been unprecedentedly strong in the last one and half months. Causing gold falling from 980 to 810, oil from 148 to 108 now, Australia dollar diving from 0.97 to 0.82.
I feel with Fannie, Freddie takeover new, commodity and energy price would be rebounding quickly as well as Australia dollar. This will end crazy period in the last 2 months in terms of commodity and FX exchange.
Today, US share market will have around 2% gain. Not sure whether this would mean a temp relieve of bear market, at least a decent rebound for a while?
What is dragging share market lower, unemployment figure, mortgage crisis, high oil price. All of them seem to have a good answer. There is no fresh bad news.
In the long term of run, I don't believe material sector will be performing well. It lacks fundamental support/urge to push commodity price higher. Demand from China will be shrinking. Real estate market in China is facing similar problem, price of real estate property is dropping.
US dollar has been unprecedentedly strong in the last one and half months. Causing gold falling from 980 to 810, oil from 148 to 108 now, Australia dollar diving from 0.97 to 0.82.
I feel with Fannie, Freddie takeover new, commodity and energy price would be rebounding quickly as well as Australia dollar. This will end crazy period in the last 2 months in terms of commodity and FX exchange.
Today, US share market will have around 2% gain. Not sure whether this would mean a temp relieve of bear market, at least a decent rebound for a while?
What is dragging share market lower, unemployment figure, mortgage crisis, high oil price. All of them seem to have a good answer. There is no fresh bad news.
In the long term of run, I don't believe material sector will be performing well. It lacks fundamental support/urge to push commodity price higher. Demand from China will be shrinking. Real estate market in China is facing similar problem, price of real estate property is dropping.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Fundamental or Technical
For share investment, fundamental and technical analysis are 2 ways for studying markets. Applying one of them without considering the other is dangerous, at least not efficient. This is just method, possibly this is the most unimportant part for trading. Many times, it is human emotions control share price up and down, not from the fundamental. One saying is 'the market is always right', the other saying might be more accurate, 'the market is always wrong'. If market is always right, why there is always sharp share price movement every day. 2 analysis should not violate each other. Fundamental should be the core to consider, technical analysis should be more concentrating on timing and money management or if wrong, what I do. Stick to the company study, or run away.
On the other hand, it is money management or discipline that separate winners from loser. Does it mean, if you randomly select share, long or short, as far as you are following your money management rule, you can earn money as well. No, it may just mean you can survive in the dark forest with hungry wolves. It does not mean you are the top killer or hunter.
Compounding rate is the most amazing thing in the world, but consistently achieving this is so hard. Most people, including me will lose substantially in the first year or two in market. Most people will never come back. Reading book is only the first step, control yourself, or mind is the core part in success. Now, share trading will become one of core topic in my blog. Let it get started. Have a goal, have confidence,
On the other hand, it is money management or discipline that separate winners from loser. Does it mean, if you randomly select share, long or short, as far as you are following your money management rule, you can earn money as well. No, it may just mean you can survive in the dark forest with hungry wolves. It does not mean you are the top killer or hunter.
Compounding rate is the most amazing thing in the world, but consistently achieving this is so hard. Most people, including me will lose substantially in the first year or two in market. Most people will never come back. Reading book is only the first step, control yourself, or mind is the core part in success. Now, share trading will become one of core topic in my blog. Let it get started. Have a goal, have confidence,
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